SA may avoid a severe plunge in international student numbers but will still experience a halt to strong growth education agents warn.

After successive boom years, numbers are expected to fall by at least 15 per cent this coming year, and states with a high proportion of foreign vocational students, such as Victoria, will be hardest hit.

Almost 2000 jobs could be lost in SA and $229 million wiped from the Budget bottom line by March 2012 as a result of the policy changes and ensuing confusion, according to the Australian Council for Private Education and Training. Using Access Economics modelling, it estimates SA has already shed 25 jobs and $3 million.

The exponential growth in vocational education and training has been largely attributed to students choosing courses that align with Australia's skilled migration needs, but the Federal Government drastically tightened the list of eligible skills in May and will no longer consider visas for popular ``dropped'' occupations such as hairdressing (though it has sought to calm critics by implementing a transition for current students, allowing them to apply for 18-month Skilled Graduate visas under the old list until end 2012).

This comes in the compounding wake of the collapse and closure of a number of private VET colleges, leaving thousands of mainly Indian students in a temporary lurch.

South Australia, which has a greater proportion of students in higher education, is not as exposed, experts say.

``I think 15 per cent (fall in student numbers) is somewhere about it. It could be a little higher,'' says IDP Education chief executive Anthony Pollock. ``There will certainly be a job impact ...The economic impact of their presence is widely distributed; less than half of what they spend here is on tuition. They also spend on accommodation, food, entertainment, travel and communication...it's a very integrated economic impact so it will affect lots of sectors.''

The education agency operates offices in 25 countries, and Mr Pollock said inquiries about Australia from Indian students are down 90 per cent below what they would normally be at this time of year, and those from China and Vietnam are down 30 per cent.

``Steady-state or very very low single-digit growth is the ideal situation for Australia; we can't sustain double-digit growth into the future, nor should we attempt to do so, but we're not in a steady-state situation, we're falling away from it so it's going to be costly.''

Education Adelaide chairman Bill Spurr anticipates the impact to be short-lived, and that the state rate of growth may readjust to a lower, but still viable, speed.

``I still think South Australia is still well-placed compared to the rest of the nation...but I think certainly growth will slow,'' he says.

``If we can keep a positive growth, even if it's in the 1-5 per cent mark, I think it would be very encouraging. It will certainly be a readjustment from the very high growth rates we've had but if we can settle around that 5 per cent growth each year, that's a very sustainable growth pattern and I think everyone would be very happy with that.''

Decline has been evident since January, with enrollments still strong but commencements  actual bums on seats  down every month when compared to last year.

On present growth (of 11 per cent year to date, outstripping national growth of 4 per cent), Education Adelaide would expect to have about 38,000 students enrolled by the end of 2010, giving the state another record result. But data from Australian Education International shows SA commencements were down 1.1 per cent in April compared to a year earlier and nationally they were down 3.3 per cent.

Student visas are also down almost 10 per cent in the nine months to March.

Across Australia, student numbers grew by 13 per cent in 2009, to 491,565 student visas with just over 40 percent from China and India. Vocational education maintained its position as the strongest growing sector, drawing more than 60 per cent of all Indian students, followed by higher education which boasts the largest overall numbers (196,000 students, about 25 per cent of them Chinese).

Many came on the expectation of a migration outcome.

An online survey IDP conducted last year showed one of the top reasons students chose a particular country was because of the employment prospects it offered (34 per cent), and many wanted to migrate or obtain residency in a country with higher living standards (22 per cent).

Last year, foreign student numbers in SA grew 21 percent, to 33,000. This made education the state's third largest export, valued at $990 million in direct and spin-off revenue and supporting 6500 local jobs. It is also Australia's third-largest export, worth $18.6 billion in 2009.

UniSA, which relies most heavily on foreign students (with over 13,000 foreign students here and in its courses delivered overseas) expects to take a short-term hit but to grow overall in the long term.

Vice Chancellor Peter Hoj says factors such as higher costs because of the strong Aussie dollar, visa issues, recent negative publicity regarding some private colleges, and the increased competition from Europe, the UK and the US will all have an impact.

``At this stage the university is experiencing a decline in the number of Indian students, but its numbers from countries such as Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore continue to grow,'' he says. ``We do expect there will be an overall decline in international student numbers in 2011 Australia-wide. We can't estimate the scale of that but we are working to ensure it is temporary.''

Recent UniSA MBA graduate Harpinder Singh Chipra is seeking to extend his time in Australia with an 18-month graduate visa, but is disappointed to have missed the opportunity for permanent migration, with his skills no longer ``in demand''.

He anticipates his lack of residency could make it difficult to find a job in his area  marketing and business analysis  as employers may be reluctant to hire a professional only temporarily.

``I didn't (come here) because of migration...but I'm still trying to get permanent residency for the sole reason, if I can live here for five, six years...I can get international work experience,'' says Mr Chipra, who knows a few fellow students upset by the policy changes.