One university highly exposed to the collapse of the overseas student market stands to lose $20 million in revenue next year.

Almost half of the students at the multi-campus Central Queensland University are full-fee payers from overseas.

CQU vice-chancellor Scott Bowman said: "We are expecting a 25 per cent drop in commencements in 2011, and again in 2012."

That will shave an estimated $20m from the CQU budget next year, and a further $16m in 2012.

CQU is among the most vulnerable universities, as 80 per cent of its information technology students are from overseas, the bulk from India.

Universities are bracing for big drops in the number of overseas students enrolling in the next couple of years. Tighter skilled migration rules, slow visa processing, the high Australian dollar, reputation damage caused by attacks on Indian students and closures of dodgy colleges have reversed Australia's fortunes as an exporter of education.

The University of Ballarat has felt the brunt of the downturn, with international enrolments dropping from 32 per cent of its total to just 22 per cent this year. Like CQU, Ballarat was heavily exposed to the Indian market, the first to collapse, with 55 per cent of its international students from the sub-continent. However, Ballarat vice-chancellor David Battersby said: "We are going into 2011 . . . with quiet optimism because we think the drop has bottomed out."

Professor Bowman said, although CQU was bracing for a hit, no new courses would close.

New government data shows the beginnings of a wider trend, as students from China, Nepal, Japan and Brazil choose other English-speaking countries such as Britain, the US and Canada over Australia. Total enrolments across education sectors -- higher education, vocational, English-language and schools -- were down by 1.4 per cent in October. It was the third consecutive month of decline in the $18 billion sector, in contrast to average annual growth of 10.7 per cent since 2002.

Early and severe damage is harming the English-language sector, which acts as a pipeline into undergraduate study in universities. Overall, the English-language sector was down 22per cent in the year to October. China, Australia's largest source country, was down 15 per cent, with the next 10 largest markets all recording declines. Universities contacted by The Australian gave varied predictions of the impact. Melbourne University and the University of NSW expect commencements to stay flat next year, with the decline biting in either 2012 or 2013. UNSW vice-chancellor Fred Hilmer said the problem was reversible.

Macquarie University and Victoria University are both predicting declines of about 10 per cent in new students next year, but expect no closures. CQU and Ballarat are among universities that will compensate for the decline in international students by increasing domestic enrolments, along with diversifying income streams and restructuring. Higher education analyst Andrew Norton said pursuing domestic students to offset the loss of overseas fee income might prove risky. "More than half of international students are studying management and commerce," said Mr Norton, a research fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies. "On 2010 figures, international revenue for an undergraduate commerce student was on average about 80 per cent higher than for a domestic student. The long-term economics of substitution are not good."

At Melbourne University, an international undergraduate business student pays $31,776 a year. A domestic student contributes $9080 a year in HECS, with the government chipping in just $1793. That leaves the university with almost $20,000 less in revenue between enrolling an international or domestic student.